FITCH TÜRKİYE'NİN NOTUNU KORUDU

25.10.2013 07:04

BBB- olan kredi notu korundu. Ayrıca görünüm de durağan. Burada bir sürpriz yok, Kasım 2012’de not artıran Fitch zaten 2 yıl boyunca notun artmayacağını açıklamıştı. Her ne kadar cari açık ve enflasyon tahminlerimiz daha iyi seviyelerde olsa da şu an görünümü artırmayı gerektirecek bir makro ekonomik gelişme de söz konusu değil. Her zaman sayılan nasıl not artar, nasıl düşer kısmını yine aşağıda bulabilirsiniz.

Orta vadeli programı iyimser bulan kuruluş ayrıca politik riskin de fiyatlandığını ancak bir risk olmadığını ve ülkenin not seviyesinin var olan riskleri içerdiğini söylüyor. Piyasa açısından nötr bir açıklama, Dolar/TL 1,9800’de ancak TUR US kodlu Türkiye fonu ABD’de % 0,7 aşağıda kapandı.

Fitch ve Moody’s Türkiye’yi yatırım yapılabilir seviyede değerlerken S&P ise henüz junk seviyesinde değerliyor.

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Fitch Affirms Turkey at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings-London-24 October 2013: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkey's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB-' and 'BBB' respectively. The issue ratings on Turkey's senior, unsecured foreign and local currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BBB-' and 'BBB' respectively. The Outlooks on the Long-term IDRs are Stable. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'BBB', and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The affirmation reflects the following factors:

Fitch believes that Turkey's sovereign creditworthiness remains resilient to recent shocks, notwithstanding its heavy reliance on net capital inflows in lieu of low domestic savings. While this key rating weakness leaves Turkey vulnerable to swings in global investor sentiment, it is mitigated by Turkey's underlying credit fundamentals: a strengthening sovereign debt profile, a robust banking system, a relatively deep domestic capital market and a dynamic private sector. These shock absorbers enhance Turkey's ability to deflect bouts of financial uncertainty and global investor unease without impairing sovereign creditworthiness.

Turkey has suffered a sharp slowdown in net capital inflows since May 2013, as uncertainty about the future direction of US monetary policy coincided with unexpected domestic political and social unrest and some escalation in regional tensions. These developments have led to a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate, some loss of international reserves and a repricing of Turkish risk. Nonetheless, Fitch judges that these adverse developments remain within the tolerance of Turkey's 'BBB-'/Stable sovereign rating.

Turkey's large current account deficit (Fitch forecasts it at 7.4% of GDP in 2013), funded almost wholly by short-term and portfolio capital inflows, renders it vulnerable to sudden changes in global investor sentiment and its international liquidity ratio (76%) falls well short of the 'BBB' median (138%). Still, Turkey is no stranger to external shocks. External financing proved remarkably resilient through the Lehman and eurozone debt crises. Similarly, balance of payments data through August 2013 indicate that the current account deficit (CAD) remains fully financed on a 12-month rolling basis, borne out by the modest increase in international reserves of USD5bn since July to USD108.6bn.

Fitch considers that the combination of a wide CAD, high inflation (7.9% y-o-y in September) and weak international liquidity pose difficult policy challenges for the authorities when set against a predilection for higher growth and a less benign global financing environment. In this context, we find the official growth, inflation and current account projections contained in the latest medium-term programme (MTP) for 2014-16 somewhat optimistic. However, we would expect the authorities to adjust domestic policy settings in a timely manner to avert a more disruptive shock to economic stability.

Public finances are a key support for Turkey's sovereign ratings. General government deficits should remain around 2% of GDP and gross general government debt (GGGD) of 36.4% of GDP is exactly aligned with the 'BBB' median. Active debt management has extended out maturities, reducing prospective fiscal funding needs to around 9% of GDP in 2014-15, while the FX share of GGGD has fallen to 30% from 60% over the past decade. The MTP notes that the central government deficit should come in at 1.2% of GDP in 2013, well below target (2.2%), and charts a conservative fiscal stance through 2016. Even so, Fitch notes that central government expenditure has ratcheted up aided by buoyant revenues (including privatisation receipts) and lower debt service costs, and could prove difficult to rein in, in the face of a sharp economic slowdown.

Fitch is forecasting slower real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2014, down from an expected 3.7% in 2013, as the economy adjusts to a repricing of Turkish risk and bank lending growth slows from a still high 22% at present. Fitch does not expect a prolonged slowdown in net capital inflows: sovereign market access remains intact, while banks and corporates report continuing high roll-over rates, albeit at shortening maturities. However, Turkey's non-bank private sector remains the most exposed to interest rate and exchange rate shocks and higher debt service costs can be expected to feed through to lower private investment and growth.

Political risk has risen following the outbreak of anti-government protests in May and developments in neighbouring Syria and further uncertainty can be expected to accompany local and presidential elections in 2014-15. Still, Fitch notes that relatively low scores on political stability and voice accountability are already factored into Turkey's sovereign ratings, while parallels with the Arab Spring should not be overplayed. Turkey has a democratically elected government with a strong majority that has delivered on much of its original mandate over three electoral terms.

Turkey's sovereign ratings are supported by its favourable medium-term growth prospects supported by demographic trends, deepening local capital markets, strong debt management capacity, a respectable debt service record and a dynamic private sector.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The Stable Outlook reflects the fact that in Fitch's view, upside and downside risks to the rating are balanced. The main factors that individually or collectively might lead to rating action are as follows:

Positive:

- A material and durable reduction in the current account deficit, coupled with a rebalancing of net capital inflows towards longer-term instruments and a sustained increase in international reserves

- A track record of lower and more stable inflation

- Structural reforms that raise gross domestic savings and attract greater foreign direct investment

Negative:

- A sharp, sustained downturn in capital inflows which has a material adverse impact on economic and financial stability, including a deterioration in public finances and a reversal of Turkey's favourable public debt dynamics

- A material increase in net external debt over the medium term, related to rapid credit growth and continuing large current account deficits

- A major political shock with a material adverse impact on the macroeconomic outlook

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Turkey's ratings are based on a number of key assumptions:

- Fiscal outcomes are broadly in line with the Turkish government's MTP for 2014-16, consistent with a declining GGGD/GDP ratio

- US Federal Reserve 'tapering' proceeds in an orderly manner such that there is no 'sudden stop' of capital flows to countries like Turkey with large CADs

- International oil prices evolve broadly in line with Fitch's projections of USD100/bbl in 2014-15

Contact:

Primary Analyst

Paul Rawkins

Senior Director

+44 20 3530 1046

Fitch Ratings Limited

30 North Colonnade

London E14 5GN

Secondary Analyst

Gergely Kiss

Director

+44 20 3530 1425

Committee Chairperson

Andrew Colquhoun

Senior Director

+852 2263 9938

Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: peter.fitzpatrick@fitchratings.com.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

Applicable criteria, 'Sovereign Rating Criteria' dated 13 August 2012 and 'Country Ceilings' dated 09 August 2013, are available at www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Sovereign Rating Criteria
Country Ceilings

Additional Disclosure

Solicitation Status

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. < /p>

30 North Colonnade, London, E14 5GN

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YASAL UYARI: Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir. Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti, yetkili kuruluşlar tarafından kişilerin risk ve getiri tercihleri dikkate alınarak kişiye özel sunulmaktadır. Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler ise genel niteliktedir. Bu tavsiyeler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir. Bu rapor ve yorumlardaki yazılar, bilgiler ve grafikler, ulaşılabilen ilk kaynaklardan iyi niyetle ve doğruluğu, geçerliliği, etkinliği velhasıl her ne şekil, suret ve nam altında olursa olsun herhangi bir karara dayanak oluşturması hususunda herhangi bir teminat, garanti oluşturmadan, yalnızca bilgi edinilmesi amacıyla derlenmiştir. İş bu raporlardaki yorumlardan; eksik bilgi ve/veya güncellenme gibi konularda ortaya çıkabilecek zararlardan Akbank T.A.Ş., Ak Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Ak Portföy Yönetimi A.Ş. ve çalışanları sorumlu değildir. Akbank T.A.Ş., Ak Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Ak Portföy Yönetimi A.Ş her an, hiçbir şekil ve surette ön ihbara ve/veya ihtara gerek kalmaksızın söz konusu bilgileri, tavsiyeleri değiştirebilir ve/veya ortadan kaldırabilir. Genel anlamda bilgi vermek amacıyla hazırlanmış olan iş bu rapor ve yorumlar, kapsamı bilgiler, tavsiyeler hiçbir şekil ve surette Akbank T.A.Ş., Ak Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Ak Portföy Yönetimi A.Ş 'nin herhangi bir taahhüdünü tazammum etmediğinden, bu bilgilere istinaden her türlü özel ve/veya tüzel kişiler tarafından alınacak kararlar, varılacak sonuçlar, gerçekleştirilecek işlemler ve oluşabilecek her türlü riskler bizatihi bu kişilere ait ve raci olacaktır. Hiçbir şekil ve surette ve her ne nam altında olursa olsun, her türlü gerçek ve/veya tüzel kişinin, gerek doğrudan gerek dolayısı ile ve bu sebeplerle uğrayabileceği her türlü doğrudan ve/veya dolayısıyla oluşacak maddi ve manevi zarar, kar mahrumiyeti, velhasıl her ne nam altında olursa olsun uğrayabileceği zararlardan hiçbir şekil ve surette Akbank T.A.Ş., Ak Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Ak Portföy Yönetimi A.Ş. ve çalışanları sorumlu tutulamayacak ve hiçbir şekil ve surette her ne nam altında olursa olsun Akbank T.A.Ş., Ak Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş., Ak Portföy Yönetimi A.Ş. çalışanlarından talepte bulunulmayacaktır.

Kullanmakta olduğunuz tarayıcının otomatik çeviri, kelime filtreleme özellikleri veya metin eşleştirme yapan 3.parti yazılımlar vb. metin farklılıkları sağlayacak otomatik ayarlar sebebiyle bu sayfada yer alan metinde anlam bütünlüğünü bozabilecek ifadeler bulunabilir. Böyle bir durum ile karşılaştığınızda musteri.hizmetleri@akyatirim.com.tr adresine e-posta iletebilirsiniz.